Gearing up for 2016

While the most ambitious would-be Presidents are already jockeying for position, it's important to remember that "He who starts first, runs out of gas first." Or, in the case of presidential campaigns, runs out of money/ideas/supporters, &c.

I haven't settled on any candidate yet. There are a number of people I like a lot, but I have to acknowledge that some are "yesterday's men" who have no hope of being elected in 2016. There are those who have distinguished themselves locally, but have, as yet, nothing to offer on a national or international stage. Their time will come, but not by 2016.There are those who have attracted national attention and approbation, but are just not "presidential" enough to represent the United States of America on an international stage.

In 2008, Obama promised a lot and delivered little. The 2012 election was an open goal, but not only did the GOP run the wrong way, but they fumbled the ball as well. We can only hope that doesn't happen in 2016.

So what should progressive Republicans be looking for?

1. People who are not afraid to be Republican, or afraid to be progressive.

Recently, Republicans have either tried to look like moderate Democrats, or appeared not to be engaged in the same contest, country or century.

2. Local Republicans should ensure - no, they should demand - that no Democrat runs unopposed no matter how bad the odds are. This isn't throwing money away; just collect enough names to get on the ballot. The electorate has the right to a choice. Republicans have let them down on this, badly, for decades.

3. Don't treat the American public like stupid children. Tell them what's what. Tell them how you're going to fix it, or at least make it a little better.

Look at Obama's list of what he was going to do from 2008. It wasn't just the Republicans that stopped him; it was his own lack of understanding of the issues. His advisors should have reined him in, but they thought it didn't matter. Now his presidency looks worse than Jimmy Carter's. Obama's been a veritable Warren G. Harding: no one knew where he came from, and no one knew what he was doing.

4. Most states have several dozen Republican organizations, very few of which talk to each other. Getting better coordination is a top-down and bottom-up activity. Get on with it. [It took my local Republican club a year and a half to deposit my membership check.]

5. Look for people who act like winners - election winners. People who can make others feel good about being Americans again, but not through the usual anodyne phrases. Somneone who can credibly say that they balanced budgets with good social care are possible, but on a realistic scale. Someone who says that schools can be better, but that children and parents will have to do some work. Someone who knows that 50% of children will always be below average and doesn't pretend otherwise.

Want a platform?

The GOP could do worse than addressing the points made in the first 10 minutes of episode one of The Newsroom. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zqOYBabXmA

Debt Ceiling Days

Okay, what, if anything have we learned from the debt ceiling debate?

1. Politicians don't listen to their constituents

2. Politicians don't listen to each other

3. Politicians are more concerned with making sound bites than actually dealing with problems

4. Politicians don't realise that public sees through them

5. Tea-party members of Congress need to learn about real politique

6. Welfare isn't a sacred cow

7. Defense spending isn't a sacred cow

8. Tax concessions aren't sacred cows

9. Wall Street now hates Washington

10. The rest of the world hates Wall Street

Today's problem: What do do about 1 -10

Putting it back together for the future

Some readers may have been able to discern that I am writing from a viewpoint that is not that of the usual American observer. I am presently working in Europe, but enabled by the internet, able to read US newspapers, listen to US radio stations and even catch up on American television. What I miss, of course, is the opportunity to see those places I know on a regular basis, and that's why the decline of America's infrastructure stuck me so hard on my visit last month.

While the industrial base of the Northeast Corridor collapsed nearly two generations ago, its ruins remain too obvious today. Moreover, much of the newer stuff is in a state of rapid decline, too.

It what remains one of the wealthiest areas of the country, the highways are in appalling condition, the mid-sized cities have surrendered the battle against out-of-town malls, and too much potentially lucrative land is given over to open parking lots.

Spend some time with Google Maps and check out the under-used land in any of once-thriving downtown areas of Hartford, New Haven, New London, Springfield, Worcester, Nashua, Manchester, and so on. Yes, parking is necessary, and the policy of charging for it is one of the major causes of the abandonment of city-centers.

If, "it's the economy, stupid," has an immediate resonance, it begins with the local economy: local property taxes, and a shrinking tax-base, that is impoverishing cities while rising costs are making new investment a major problem. Companies with serious money tend to be open only to big-statement "showcase" developments that look impressive on the walls of corporate boardrooms. However, what's really needed is an architect with a vision for two blocks where an old machine shop was pulled down; some creative planing permissions, enabling useful mixed-used zoning, and some investment.

A series of modest developments costing between $5 - 10 million would make a big difference in these city centers on both economic and social levels, and probably deliver a pretty good and fast ROI.

Local governments can be quirky, but they are far less likely to be suffering from the paralysis that state and federal governments are suffering from.

Low-cost, low-risk projects are suited to increased local participation from community leaders and private citizens with a strong knowledge of a neighborhood, that can increase a project's chance of success while potentially reducing its cost.

Repairing America's infrastructure does not need to be a daunting, bureaucratic and hugely expensive process, but it does need to start soon.

Failure of Leadership

Perhaps it's time for Americans to revisit the idea of representative democracy.

That concept looks at the abilities and character of its representatives and elected officials and decides whether they are suitable to serve the electorate. Parties offer general positional guidelines only, and for an elected official to blindly follow party policy is to deny his own intellectual ability and abdicate responsibility for his actions. Moreover, not to action one's best considered judgement is to fail to lead.

Unfortunately, today there are many things that interfere with politicians exercising their best judgement. One big reason is the number of lobbyists there are now in Washington. There are more than 15,000 Federal lobbyists. That 28 for each US Congressman, Senator and the President.

Now you know why your senator doesn't answer your letters. It also gives a pretty good indication as to who's running the country - especially now that corporations are regarded as individuals for campaign funding purposes.

How we get our leaders to lead?

Too many people think we can't get there from here. That slows down the process considerably.

It will take time, and it will take effort on the part of individual voters, but the process is there.

1. Vote

2. Vote people out are doing their jobs badly - and that doesn't mean just not doing what you want. It means, a) if their attendance at votes is poor; b) if they've made dubious deals; c) if they appear to have more money than someone on a Federal/State salary should; d) if they don't reply to reasonable, reasoned letters; e) if they don't visit their constituency often or come to local party meetings, support local organizations or are absent without good reason more often than they should be

3. Have some idea of what's going on in at least one issue of importance; build knowledge and write to state and Federal representatives to put your case

4. Support activities that will help return government officials to better accountability

There are myriad other activities, but these are the easiest to begin with. Joining a local party and work to influence its thinking. Educate its members in the area(s) where you have knowledge and experience.

These things will make you an active citizen and an informed voter. However, beware as these activities can become habit-forming.

Wisconsin: Myths and Legends

Hyperbole should never be taken seriously. As Americans, we're pretty good at detecting hyperbole in advertising. Why are we so bad in detecting it in political activists? For example, why does the Wisconsin Democrats' leader's statement"Our fight to protect union rights has become a fight to protect all our rights," get serious coverage, when it is clearly a) untrue; and b) inflammatory? After all, he's associated with the notorious boycott of the legislature, which was at least contempt of the legislature, and probably fraud as well.

It would be interesting to see if the state of Wisconsin could launch fraud proceedings against the boycotting legislators, for they pretty clearly were taking money under false pretences. They were pretending to be active members of a licit body while hiding in another.

It's too easy to forget why Wisconsin and other states are in the financial condition they are and focus on the red-herring of the perceived injustice of changing procedures. This diversionary tactic is transparent and cynical, and has nothing to do with supposed "rights" Constitutional, human or otherwise.

Come on, guys, grow up. Do your jobs. Earn your re-election, and earn the money the taxpayers are paying you.

An historical consideration

It's interesting watching American politics against the background of the unrest in Lybia, Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world. Fifty or a hundred years from now, it will be easier to see the events on both sides of the Atlantic as having the same theme: ordinary people trying to take better control over their governments.

The US elections of 2008 and 2010 expressed the desire for change by vast numbers of Americans. Unfortunately, far from being an agent of real change, President Obama pretty much rolled over for the special interest groups and with each passing day it's getting hard to tell where Bush's presidency ended and Obama's began.

The Tea Party movement was something special as it occurred pretty spontaneously, had no acknowledged national leaders and had a pretty broad-based appeal. However, for a variety of reasons (its own success; media interference; and the sustained activism on the right of the Republican party) the Tea Party movement became more right-wing and lost center/center-right support.

What this means is simply that 2010 will proved to have been the high-water mark for the Tea Party. It has become too extreme to attract the numbers of new supporters necessary to capture majorities in 2012.

Moreover, the conservative right (including the Tea Party) will split the Republican vote in 2012 and we will see big gains for the Democrats in the House and Senate and President Obama in the White House for a second term - and remember, this will please Wall Street, too.

What needs to happen - and history shows that it will - is that a movement or an individual from the middle will capture the public imagination in the way Obama did in 2008 and more moderate, even progressive, Republicans will be elected and the balance of power in the US will be restored and the "wingnuts" marginalized.

Unlikely though it may seem, Scott Walker could do this. If he has anything that looks like success with the Wisconsin budget, he could find himself as a vice presidential candidate in the way that Calvin Coolidge won national attention with his "No one has the right to strike against public safety" declaration.

Are the Parties Over?

A quick look at American history shows a number of political parties forming and dissolving prior to the Civil War, but then a sustained coalition around the Democratic and Republican parties. There were the odd single-issue parties, independents and perennial non-starters (Prohibition, Socialist, States Rights, etc.) but no serious challenge has been made to the two party system for a very long time.

Perhaps conditions are becoming more favorable to think what is for many the unthinkable.

In Europe, established parties are facing serious and successful challenges from a variety of "green" parties who are now represented at the national level in a number of countries. The recent inconclusive result in the UK elections resulted in a previously unthinkable alliance with the Liberal-Democratic party - itself a combination of the old Liberal party (out of power and in third place for nearly a century) and the 1980s splinter party, the Social Democratic party.

To say that neither the Conservative nor the Liberal-Democrat electorate is enamored with the coalition government is stating the obvious, however, both groups were desperately hungry for power after thirteen years of Labour and decided to give it a go.

What may evolve out of the marriage of convenience is the emergence of a new party occupying a right of center economic and defense stance, but a slightly left of center social position. Indeed, this is where the current mood of the UK population appears to be, but it will isolate - and eventually eliminate - the traditional followers of both parties at the more extreme left and right.

The similarities with what is going on in the United States are worth noting. Within both the Democratic and Republican parties there are battles going on between the right and left tendencies. The public appears not to have a simple preference for either party. Indeed, it would prefer to chose the bits that it does like, just as it channel hops, or creates its own version of the news. [Whatever party wins, reconciling these selfish forces will be a serious challenge.]

Ambitious young politicians have some exciting opportunities ahead of them if they want to build new constituencies, reform worn party policies and excite a new generation of voters. This can be done from within an existing party, or through the formation of a whole new, imaginative, 21st century concept that can relate to today's electorate.