Are the Parties Over?

A quick look at American history shows a number of political parties forming and dissolving prior to the Civil War, but then a sustained coalition around the Democratic and Republican parties. There were the odd single-issue parties, independents and perennial non-starters (Prohibition, Socialist, States Rights, etc.) but no serious challenge has been made to the two party system for a very long time.

Perhaps conditions are becoming more favorable to think what is for many the unthinkable.

In Europe, established parties are facing serious and successful challenges from a variety of "green" parties who are now represented at the national level in a number of countries. The recent inconclusive result in the UK elections resulted in a previously unthinkable alliance with the Liberal-Democratic party - itself a combination of the old Liberal party (out of power and in third place for nearly a century) and the 1980s splinter party, the Social Democratic party.

To say that neither the Conservative nor the Liberal-Democrat electorate is enamored with the coalition government is stating the obvious, however, both groups were desperately hungry for power after thirteen years of Labour and decided to give it a go.

What may evolve out of the marriage of convenience is the emergence of a new party occupying a right of center economic and defense stance, but a slightly left of center social position. Indeed, this is where the current mood of the UK population appears to be, but it will isolate - and eventually eliminate - the traditional followers of both parties at the more extreme left and right.

The similarities with what is going on in the United States are worth noting. Within both the Democratic and Republican parties there are battles going on between the right and left tendencies. The public appears not to have a simple preference for either party. Indeed, it would prefer to chose the bits that it does like, just as it channel hops, or creates its own version of the news. [Whatever party wins, reconciling these selfish forces will be a serious challenge.]

Ambitious young politicians have some exciting opportunities ahead of them if they want to build new constituencies, reform worn party policies and excite a new generation of voters. This can be done from within an existing party, or through the formation of a whole new, imaginative, 21st century concept that can relate to today's electorate.

The GOP and Market Forces

While everyone rejoices in the way that the president solved the puzzle of the Gulf Oil Leak and congressional committeemen have great sound bites from their grilling of Tony Hayward for their election ads, Republicans need to take a careful look at their strategy for 2012.

To a great extent, they have already blown the November elections and will fail to make the turnaround they could have had. The reason for this is they have singularly failed to listen to their own mantras.

Things are governed by market forces.

Now this is a bit more sophisticated than "It's the economy, stupid" but it's still not rocket science.

I'll explain in short words and sentences.

1. Choose candidates that are electable. This means not choosing your favorite GOP writer, commentator, journalist, lawyer, local party leader, congressman or other glamor girl (or boy), but choosing someone who has appeal beyond right-of-center voters. It's a funny thing, the American system: the person who gets the most votes (or has the Supreme Court behind him) wins.

As of yet, there is no one who meets this criteria being talked about by GOP leaders. Yes, there are some interesting, intelligent, dedicated, hard-working people out there, but the country isn't going to suddenly love someone they rejected in in 2008, or before. This also applies to people the Republican Party itself rejected at earlier conventions.

2. Look again at immigration. Why do most Republican think that market forces should work in all sectors except immigration? Get the the illegal immigrants registered, get them on the tax register, and put together an economic program that will bring jobs back to the US so these people can earn a living. If there is no legal mechanism at work, there is no control.

By all means, seize on the Obama adminstration's total lack of action on the matter and turn it to good advantage that has a popular, just-cause feel about it. Find a solution that even Arizona residents will like, for there is the potential to swell the state treasury. Stop looking at people as a liability and start looking at them as an asset.

Above all, remember that the point of nominations is to put up people who can WIN. It's not about massaging the egos of people or interest groups, it's about winning the center ground.

The last two years has seen a floundering by the party with mixed messages, vulnerability to opposition attacks, an inability to damage the government effectively (fortunately, they've been doing a pretty good job of that themselves - but the GOP needs to turn that into votes for themselves), and total lack of a coherent message.